You may be thinking that I am crazy....by reading the title...especially in the context of a recession fears.
I strongly believe that the next peak for IT is in waiting because of following reasons..
1. Now that outsourcing and offshoring is proven and given, what the companies in US would want to do?. If they have cut down costs by outsourcing, able to demand more value from offshore vendors, what would they do with that extra money?. Ideally, if you are outsourcing your non-core activities, your core should start to improve. Is it really happening?. Are the companies thinking about Growth, now that productivity is almost taken care?. Are there are any new generation companies that have come up in the last 10 years?.
The answer is NO. Why?. The economy is red. Though the companies have mastered the skill of outsourcing and negotiation, they are yet to master the skill in various areas like - IT value measurement, Enterprise Architecture, Business Transformation using IT.
2. US is importing more than exporting. If US has to export to other countries, it needs a globalized thinking. It needs to think about Globalized Products and Services in Emerging countries. How do they do that?. More and more MNCs are opening shops in emerging countries. The only way they can reduce the time to market their products/services ahead of competitors is using IT.
3. Irrespective of the countries or economy, there are universal issues like health and poverty. IT can play a huge role in solving some of the critical problems in this universal problem areas.
4. The Enterprise IT is still complex. Though there are few innovations like SaaS, etc. They are in the process of maturing and more innovations need to follow to make the IT landscape simpler.
Now, if there is a slowdown in IT, it is only interim. And when things change for the good, the leaders will be racing ahead of rest of others. So, slowdown/recession is good that it makes people to think and introspect to come up with new ways of doing business/new products and services that would solve real problems.